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The CB Capital Global Diffusion Index Says Higher Oil Prices in 2015

We first introduced our CB Capital Global Diffusion Index (“CBGDI”) in our March 17, 2013 commentary (“The Message of the CB Capital Global Diffusion Index: A Bottom in WTI Crude Oil Prices“), when WTI...

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WTI Crude Oil – Blood in the Streets

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” – Nathan Mayer Rothschild, 1815 As we are writing this, WTI crude oil is trading at $69 a barrel, a fresh 4-year low, after OPEC...

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Why Crude Oil Prices Will Recover Faster than You Think

Over the last six months, WTI crude oil prices declined from a peak of $107 to $60 a barrel, or a decline of 44%. Many analysts, including the Energy Information Administration (EIA), are forecasting...

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Why Commodities Will Rally Hard Over the Next 2-3 Weeks

The commodities complex is hugely oversold. US$ bullishness has not been this high since the depths of the financial crisis in early 2009. With the SNB eliminating the synthetic peg to the Euro–Euro...

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The Weakening of the CB Capital Global Diffusion Index Suggests Lower Asset...

The Economist just published an article discussing the Baltic Dry Index (“BDI”) and its lack of usefulness as a global leading economic indicator. We know Goldman Sachs constructs its global leading...

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Our Leading Indicators Still Suggest Lower Asset Prices

In our March 12, 2015 commentary (“The Weakening of the CB Capital Global Diffusion Index Suggests Lower Asset Prices“), we discussed the shortcomings of Goldman Sachs’ Global Leading Indicator (GLI)...

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Leading Indicators Suggest a Stabilization in Global Risk Asset Prices

Even as the vast majority of analysts stayed bullish on the global economy and global risk assets early last year, I began to turn bearish for a variety of reasons, including: 1) global liquidity, as...

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Leading Indicators Suggest Further Upside in Global Risk Asset Prices

Note: I know many of you reading this are either overweight cash or net short U.S. equities. Please don’t shoot the messenger: I am not personally biased to the upside – I am merely channeling what my...

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